Weekly Wednesday Presidential Politics - 1/30/07
Well, Presidential Politics for America predicted last year, re-predicted before Iowa, reaffirmed it after South Carolina, and explained it a week ago today. So it was already over. But now it's reeeeeally over.
John McCain's Florida victory and ensuing endorsement from Rudy Giuliani, has relegated the rest of the Republican Primary to window dressing. While it can be expected that Mitt Romney is nowhere close to bowing out, for reasons to be explained soon, there is nothing left in the party that can stop the Straight Talk Express.
Let's take a look at the top 10 reasons McCain will win Super Tuesday and the nomination.
1. He has the lead in the delegate count, so he has horse race coverage going for him, not to mention the remaining undecided voters who want to support the eventual winner.
McCain - 93
Romney - 59
Huckabee - 40
2. He and Romney have each won three states to Huckabee's one, but one of Romney's was Wyoming.
3. McCain has won the last two states, South Carolina and Florida, to obtain all momentum.
4. Before those two states, many conservatives pointed to the fact that McCain was only doing well because of crossover appeal to open primaries. Both South Carolina and Florida were states where only registered Republicans could vote in the Republican Primary.
5. McCain is commonly regarded as the Republican with the best chance to win the general election, especially against Hillary Clinton. This cannot be underestimated, as the Republican Party is much better than their counterparts at casting aside differences in order to win elections.
6. The Rudy Giuliani endorsement consolidates almost total power among hawkish foreign policy voters. They are the same type of candidate, minimizing social issues important to the party in favor of prioritizing, you know, being alive to bicker about these social issues. This brings over the 10-15% of the country still leaning towards Giuliani. This also eases the decision for voters' undecided between the two.
7. Knocking out Giuliani and earning his endorsement sews up California (174 delegates) and New York (101), each are winner-take-all Super Tuesday states. Those two states will widen the lead to what will seem insurmountable.
8. Unlike Romney, Huckabee has left his gloves on when it comes to challenging McCain's recent spike in support. He's refused to significantly attack McCain on any issue, either in debates or ads. Instead, Huckabee has actually washed McCain in praise. It is a real possibility Huckabee is campaigning for the Vice-Presidency.
9. There might even be a wink and a nod between the two campaigns. As long as Huckabee stays in, he's siphoning votes away from Romney's social conservative base. As much as Giuliani dropping out helps McCain, Huckabee staying hurts Romney. If it was just down to McCain vs. Romney, it'd be a spectacular battle between the foreign policy conservatives and social moderates vs. the base of the Republican Party.
10. While the conservative media (Fox News, Limbaugh and co.) will do all they can to rally conservatives around Romney, the mainstream and liberal media will cover every McCain triumph and like doing it, because they've always been find of McCain.
Still, if there's any hope that this still goes to a brokered convention, it's that some time between now and Super Tuesday, conservatives will do their very best to rally around Mitt Romney. If they had any pause about supporting him because he was a Mormon or because he had a history of saying liberal things or because he was spending too much money and still losing, those will all go by the way side. Any social conservative supporting Huckabee, who now realizes not only does Huckabee have no chance to win, but he might even be on McCain's side in this, will go to Romney.
It will turn into a zero-sum contest between McCain and Romney, with the other candidates doing very little the rest of the way. McCain's national numbers will go into the 40's, Romney's into the 30's. Rush Limbaugh and conservative radio will rail against McCain for a week, bringing up McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, McCain-Lieberman and the rest of McCain's maverick tendencies to remind the Republican Party why they did not nominate him in 2000. Romney will see a lot of conservative money for the next week with promises of more to come. He'll combine that cash with his own wealth and blitzkrieg the airwaves across the country in order to subdue McCain's vote tally on February 5th.
But none of that will work. John McCain is going to win the nomination. The party will rally around him after this is evident. Then they will sit and wait for the Democrats to find someone to go up against him.
See you next week. (Remember that I blog every weekday over at Presidential Politics for America.)
Showing posts with label Republican Primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Republican Primary. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Iowa Updates
Weekly Presidential Politics - 12/12/07
(Note, over at Presidential Politics for America, I am doing daily updates regarding the upcoming Iowa Caucus)
Here are the two major Iowa polls released this past weekend. This clearly frames the upcoming week into two main stories.
1) Huckabee vs. Romney in an elimination caucus.
2) Clinton vs. Obama, with Iowa as a microcosm.
Republicans
From Mason-Dixon (December 3-6):
Huckabee - 32
Romney - 20
Thompson - 11
McCain - 7
Giuliani - 5 (!!!)*
Undecided - 19
From Newsweek (December 5-6):
Huckabee - 39
Romney - 17
Thompson - 10
Giuliani - 9
Paul - 8
McCain - 6
Undecided - 8
Analysis on Republican polls: Both Romney and Huckabee, as well as the rest of the Republican Party, surely know this - unless Rudy Giuliani completely falls apart in national polling, there is only room for one candidate to be strong enough heading into Super Tuesday to compete on a national scale. Romney and Huckabee also know that both of their hopes rest on Iowa. A second place finish for either one is unacceptable and is a prelude to a death knell in New Hampshire.
Romney needs a victory there because he has outspent the rest of the field combined in Iowa, and to still lose despite the money advantage would be a huge hit to his credibility in the subsequent primaries. Huckabee needs a victory because his recent appeal across the country has been directly related to his surge in Iowa. If he loses Iowa, it would presumably be because Iowa voters became disillusioned with him, and if a guy like Huckabee can't win a state like Iowa, then he is not going to win a country like the United States.
*An explanation of my exclamations. Giuliani is now consistently polling single digits in Iowa, placing fourth and fifth in most polls, and going in the wrong direction to boot. The cause of this, aside from him never having a good shot to win the state anyway, is that he has pulled money, staff, and other resources away from Iowa to deploy them in states (New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina) where they would be more useful. Be prepared to hear from the Giuliani campaign that they put very little effort into Iowa, which would serve as the explanation as to why the Giuliani message did not resonate with Iowan voters.
Democrats
From Mason-Dixon (Dec. 3-6):
Clinton - 27
Obama - 25
Edwards - 21
Richardson - 9
Biden - 5
Undecided - 11
From Newsweek (Dec. 5-6):
Obama - 35
Clinton - 29
Edwards - 18
Richardson - 9
Biden - 4
Undecided - 5
Analysis on Democrat polls: Examining the most recent results of the last seven major Iowa polls (Newsweek, Mason-Dixon, Strategic Vision, Zogby, American Research Group, Des Moines Register, Rasmussen) taken in the last two weeks, Obama leads four of them, and Clinton leads three of them. If you average the results of those seven polls, Obama leads by a miniscule 1.6 percentage points, practically meaningless in the world of polling data.
What makes this tightness all the more interesting is that these are becoming two decidedly different types of candidates. Not only do they clearly identify themselves as the candidate of change (Obama) and the candidate with experience (Clinton), but in the past few weeks, they have attacked the other for basically what their opponent is touting about themselves. Obama chides Clinton as partaking in politics as usual (experience), and months ago he famously referred to her as "Bush-Cheney light." Meanwhile, Clinton consistently blasts Obama as being drastically under-experienced (change) to be the President of the United States.
These two platforms are so strikingly different, yet in Iowa, the two candidates are fascinatingly tied in polling. Though Clinton still holds double digit leads nationally, losing to Obama in Iowa when they both are putting so much effort into the state would undoubtedly help Obama and hurt Clinton in votes, momentum, money, legitimacy, and undoubtedly other categories. Of course, it would not ruin her campaign, but in a primary that is shaping up to be the closest in a generation, even a slim Iowa loss would sting a lot more than Clinton would ever let on.
(And don't forget about John Edwards.)
(Note, over at Presidential Politics for America, I am doing daily updates regarding the upcoming Iowa Caucus)
Here are the two major Iowa polls released this past weekend. This clearly frames the upcoming week into two main stories.
1) Huckabee vs. Romney in an elimination caucus.
2) Clinton vs. Obama, with Iowa as a microcosm.
Republicans
From Mason-Dixon (December 3-6):
Huckabee - 32
Romney - 20
Thompson - 11
McCain - 7
Giuliani - 5 (!!!)*
Undecided - 19
From Newsweek (December 5-6):
Huckabee - 39
Romney - 17
Thompson - 10
Giuliani - 9
Paul - 8
McCain - 6
Undecided - 8
Analysis on Republican polls: Both Romney and Huckabee, as well as the rest of the Republican Party, surely know this - unless Rudy Giuliani completely falls apart in national polling, there is only room for one candidate to be strong enough heading into Super Tuesday to compete on a national scale. Romney and Huckabee also know that both of their hopes rest on Iowa. A second place finish for either one is unacceptable and is a prelude to a death knell in New Hampshire.
Romney needs a victory there because he has outspent the rest of the field combined in Iowa, and to still lose despite the money advantage would be a huge hit to his credibility in the subsequent primaries. Huckabee needs a victory because his recent appeal across the country has been directly related to his surge in Iowa. If he loses Iowa, it would presumably be because Iowa voters became disillusioned with him, and if a guy like Huckabee can't win a state like Iowa, then he is not going to win a country like the United States.
*An explanation of my exclamations. Giuliani is now consistently polling single digits in Iowa, placing fourth and fifth in most polls, and going in the wrong direction to boot. The cause of this, aside from him never having a good shot to win the state anyway, is that he has pulled money, staff, and other resources away from Iowa to deploy them in states (New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina) where they would be more useful. Be prepared to hear from the Giuliani campaign that they put very little effort into Iowa, which would serve as the explanation as to why the Giuliani message did not resonate with Iowan voters.
Democrats
From Mason-Dixon (Dec. 3-6):
Clinton - 27
Obama - 25
Edwards - 21
Richardson - 9
Biden - 5
Undecided - 11
From Newsweek (Dec. 5-6):
Obama - 35
Clinton - 29
Edwards - 18
Richardson - 9
Biden - 4
Undecided - 5
Analysis on Democrat polls: Examining the most recent results of the last seven major Iowa polls (Newsweek, Mason-Dixon, Strategic Vision, Zogby, American Research Group, Des Moines Register, Rasmussen) taken in the last two weeks, Obama leads four of them, and Clinton leads three of them. If you average the results of those seven polls, Obama leads by a miniscule 1.6 percentage points, practically meaningless in the world of polling data.
What makes this tightness all the more interesting is that these are becoming two decidedly different types of candidates. Not only do they clearly identify themselves as the candidate of change (Obama) and the candidate with experience (Clinton), but in the past few weeks, they have attacked the other for basically what their opponent is touting about themselves. Obama chides Clinton as partaking in politics as usual (experience), and months ago he famously referred to her as "Bush-Cheney light." Meanwhile, Clinton consistently blasts Obama as being drastically under-experienced (change) to be the President of the United States.
These two platforms are so strikingly different, yet in Iowa, the two candidates are fascinatingly tied in polling. Though Clinton still holds double digit leads nationally, losing to Obama in Iowa when they both are putting so much effort into the state would undoubtedly help Obama and hurt Clinton in votes, momentum, money, legitimacy, and undoubtedly other categories. Of course, it would not ruin her campaign, but in a primary that is shaping up to be the closest in a generation, even a slim Iowa loss would sting a lot more than Clinton would ever let on.
(And don't forget about John Edwards.)
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Republican YouTube Debate Live Blog!
Weekly Presidential Politics - 11/28/07
7:52 PM - We're coming to you live from the IC condo in Groton, CT, ready to bring live coverage of tonight's CNN/YouTube Republican debate. There's been a plethora of debates in 2007, but I don't think any have been this anticipated. Finally, the American people get a shot at a floundering Republican Party.
I have no idea how the live blog will go. I've done a couple in the past, but they are almost always too verbose. I'll have to limit either the length or number of posts. Feel free to leave comments throughout the debate! The record is 63 comments. The low is 0.
Stay tuned!
7:58 - Three things I expect tonight: 1) First-tier candidates taking a shot at Huckabee's record as governor of Arkansas. 2) Five candidates claim they're like Ronald Reagan. 3) Tom Tancredo will find an immigrant in the audience and kill him with his bare hands.
8:03 - Governor Crist (R-Fl) just had the first audition for the VP slot on the Republican ticket!
8:05 - Anderson Cooper is the Ryan Seacrest of politics, am I right? Frankly, I don't know which one I just insulted.
8:12 - First question and Giuliani gets hit on immigration. Mayor Rudy and Presidential Candidate Rudy are verrrry far apart from each other on immigration. About as far apart as New York City and El Paso.
8:16 - Yes! Romney and Giuliani are going at it during the first question! These guys will be the last two standing in February folks. Pay attention. The best part is they're both spinning and perpetuating an issue that makes both of them look bad. Ladies and gentlemen... your Republican frontrunners!
8:18 - Fred Thompson just got an absolute softball on immigration to smack out of the park and he did so.
8:19 - Okay, I'm giddy here. Thompson just took a shot at Romney AND Giuliani in 20 seconds. Is this setting the tone for the debate? This could be phenomenal.
8:22 - John McCain has never looked better. Wait, did I say better? I meant older. Did I really think this guy was the favorite a year ago?
8:24 - Prediction: Tom Tancredo drops out in December, now that his pet issue - immigration - is front and center. He was never in it to win it.
8:26 - Did Hunter just compare the San Diego-Tijuana border with the Arizona/New Mexico/Texas-Mexico border???
8:29 - Okay, Romney has three enemies on stage (Huckabee, Giuliani, Thompson) and those are the three guys directly below him in Iowa polls. Not a good spot for Mitt.
8:34 - I don't know if Ron Paul is right about the potentially budding North American Union, but he was right with his historical example of the EU. It started as murmurs and bloomed fifty years later.
8:40 - It's fun to hear a bunch of Republicans hoot and holler the destruction of the IRS like school kids hearing they might get rid of homework.
8:42 - McCain just took on Ron Paul! It's like Sylvester Stallone and Carl Weathers doing Rocky XVII!
8:45 - So the left side of the stage would sign a pledge and the right side wouldn't? Sounds to me that after Thompson got the cajones to say "No," everyone else did, too. Not that I expected any different response from McCain and Ron Paul.
8:54 - In responding to the Fred Thompson YouTube add, I honestly think Mitt just put the abortion issue in the rearview mirror. Huckabee's tribulations, however, have just begun.
8:55 - First commercial break. Ranking: 1) Fred Thompson; 2) Ron Paul; 3) Huckabee; 4) Romney; 5) Tancredo; 6) McCain; 7) Giuliani; 8) Hunter.
9:04 - Okay, I gotta do a quick diatribe on the second amendment. It's easily the most brutalized amendment in the U.S. Constitution. It does not simply say, "The right to bear arms." It does not. What's continually dismissed is the premise of the amendment. "A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the People to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed." Is a well regulated militia necessary to the security of a free State anymore? That's the issue that needs to be debated first. And I'd love someone to make the case that a militia is not an archaic institution that has been unnecessary since Taft.
9:05 - Hey, this is fun! Let's hear about the amount of guns our Presidential candidates own!
9:10 - Ron Paul can always fall back on one answer - let the states decide! Man, let's just get a prime minister and forget the office of the President altogether! Hmmm... More on that to come in the future.
9:14 - The death penalty: What would Jesus do? Ladies and gentlemen, the question of the night. And we all know the answer, don't we?
9:16 - Bible questions! We should have an entire debate on that subject alone.
9:17 - Giuliani just called the Bible the greatest book ever written. Sorry, I gotta go with McCullough's John Adams. By the way, this question was in Huckabee's wheelhouse and there's not even a close second.
9:22 - It's becoming clear that they'll close with the economy and then Iraq. Talk about a grand finale!
9:26 - Has anyone ever explained why Giuliani will be stronger on terror or be tougher in foreign policy than McCain? The guy was a mayor of a city that got attacked! That's it!
9:30 - John McCain is absolutely right about the water boarding issue. Absolutely right. I don't think he's said anything dishonest tonight, joining only Tancredo and Paul. Meanwhile, Romney still can't get out of his own way tonight.
9:35 - I love Ron Paul and Iraq questions. They're my favorite part of every debate.
9:38 - Islam takes such a beating during the Republican debates. Of course, the Muslim countries don't have debates to bash Christians...
9:41 - Fred Thompson has this crowd eating out of the palm of his hand. He's still leading this debate, and tonight might be the night he starts to right the sinking ship.
9:45 - Third commercial break rankings: 1) Thompson [winning the crowd, winning his freedom]; 2) Paul [his niche loves him more than ever]; 3) McCain [clearly straight shootin' like the old days]; 4) Tancredo [nothing to lose with his honesty and wrongness]; 5) Romney [not as impressive as usual]; 6) Huckabee [Disappointing performance] ; 7) Giuliani [Only one good answer on the night] 8) Hunter [Completely underwhelming].
9:50 - Romney just got caught in his newest flipflop!
9:52 - Did anyone else hear some (dozens) Republican audience members booing the gay officer? Not a good job by that crowd.
9:58 - Um, "Hillary can be on the first rocket to Mars?!" Watch out for that one tomorrow. On the Mars issue: There will be an absolute outcry from this country if the first manned expedition to Mars does not have an American. International cooperation would be fine, but if there's no American involvement, it'd be the greatest ideological and technological disappointment in this country's history.
10:02 - Romney just called out John Edwards. I'LL KILL HIM! He also just lost South Carolina, but whatever.
10:05 - Giuliani and Huckabee are closing strong. I can't say the same for myself. I'm getting up in 7 and a half hours.
10:10 - Well, "huge" Red Sox fan Mitt Romney just added a year to the Red Sox former World Series drought (86, not 87). A perfect way to end a disappointing night for Romney... but still my favorite for the Republican nomination.
10:12 - Annnd scene. Sorry for the relatively week analysis tonight, but there's simply not enough time to get into all the issues and do a live blog. For analysis, check out my blog at Presidential Politics for America, as I'll be starting daily Iowa Caucus posts starting on Monday, December 3rd - one month until the Iowa Caucus in both parties.
7:52 PM - We're coming to you live from the IC condo in Groton, CT, ready to bring live coverage of tonight's CNN/YouTube Republican debate. There's been a plethora of debates in 2007, but I don't think any have been this anticipated. Finally, the American people get a shot at a floundering Republican Party.
I have no idea how the live blog will go. I've done a couple in the past, but they are almost always too verbose. I'll have to limit either the length or number of posts. Feel free to leave comments throughout the debate! The record is 63 comments. The low is 0.
Stay tuned!
7:58 - Three things I expect tonight: 1) First-tier candidates taking a shot at Huckabee's record as governor of Arkansas. 2) Five candidates claim they're like Ronald Reagan. 3) Tom Tancredo will find an immigrant in the audience and kill him with his bare hands.
8:03 - Governor Crist (R-Fl) just had the first audition for the VP slot on the Republican ticket!
8:05 - Anderson Cooper is the Ryan Seacrest of politics, am I right? Frankly, I don't know which one I just insulted.
8:12 - First question and Giuliani gets hit on immigration. Mayor Rudy and Presidential Candidate Rudy are verrrry far apart from each other on immigration. About as far apart as New York City and El Paso.
8:16 - Yes! Romney and Giuliani are going at it during the first question! These guys will be the last two standing in February folks. Pay attention. The best part is they're both spinning and perpetuating an issue that makes both of them look bad. Ladies and gentlemen... your Republican frontrunners!
8:18 - Fred Thompson just got an absolute softball on immigration to smack out of the park and he did so.
8:19 - Okay, I'm giddy here. Thompson just took a shot at Romney AND Giuliani in 20 seconds. Is this setting the tone for the debate? This could be phenomenal.
8:22 - John McCain has never looked better. Wait, did I say better? I meant older. Did I really think this guy was the favorite a year ago?
8:24 - Prediction: Tom Tancredo drops out in December, now that his pet issue - immigration - is front and center. He was never in it to win it.
8:26 - Did Hunter just compare the San Diego-Tijuana border with the Arizona/New Mexico/Texas-Mexico border???
8:29 - Okay, Romney has three enemies on stage (Huckabee, Giuliani, Thompson) and those are the three guys directly below him in Iowa polls. Not a good spot for Mitt.
8:34 - I don't know if Ron Paul is right about the potentially budding North American Union, but he was right with his historical example of the EU. It started as murmurs and bloomed fifty years later.
8:40 - It's fun to hear a bunch of Republicans hoot and holler the destruction of the IRS like school kids hearing they might get rid of homework.
8:42 - McCain just took on Ron Paul! It's like Sylvester Stallone and Carl Weathers doing Rocky XVII!
8:45 - So the left side of the stage would sign a pledge and the right side wouldn't? Sounds to me that after Thompson got the cajones to say "No," everyone else did, too. Not that I expected any different response from McCain and Ron Paul.
8:54 - In responding to the Fred Thompson YouTube add, I honestly think Mitt just put the abortion issue in the rearview mirror. Huckabee's tribulations, however, have just begun.
8:55 - First commercial break. Ranking: 1) Fred Thompson; 2) Ron Paul; 3) Huckabee; 4) Romney; 5) Tancredo; 6) McCain; 7) Giuliani; 8) Hunter.
9:04 - Okay, I gotta do a quick diatribe on the second amendment. It's easily the most brutalized amendment in the U.S. Constitution. It does not simply say, "The right to bear arms." It does not. What's continually dismissed is the premise of the amendment. "A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the People to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed." Is a well regulated militia necessary to the security of a free State anymore? That's the issue that needs to be debated first. And I'd love someone to make the case that a militia is not an archaic institution that has been unnecessary since Taft.
9:05 - Hey, this is fun! Let's hear about the amount of guns our Presidential candidates own!
9:10 - Ron Paul can always fall back on one answer - let the states decide! Man, let's just get a prime minister and forget the office of the President altogether! Hmmm... More on that to come in the future.
9:14 - The death penalty: What would Jesus do? Ladies and gentlemen, the question of the night. And we all know the answer, don't we?
9:16 - Bible questions! We should have an entire debate on that subject alone.
9:17 - Giuliani just called the Bible the greatest book ever written. Sorry, I gotta go with McCullough's John Adams. By the way, this question was in Huckabee's wheelhouse and there's not even a close second.
9:22 - It's becoming clear that they'll close with the economy and then Iraq. Talk about a grand finale!
9:26 - Has anyone ever explained why Giuliani will be stronger on terror or be tougher in foreign policy than McCain? The guy was a mayor of a city that got attacked! That's it!
9:30 - John McCain is absolutely right about the water boarding issue. Absolutely right. I don't think he's said anything dishonest tonight, joining only Tancredo and Paul. Meanwhile, Romney still can't get out of his own way tonight.
9:35 - I love Ron Paul and Iraq questions. They're my favorite part of every debate.
9:38 - Islam takes such a beating during the Republican debates. Of course, the Muslim countries don't have debates to bash Christians...
9:41 - Fred Thompson has this crowd eating out of the palm of his hand. He's still leading this debate, and tonight might be the night he starts to right the sinking ship.
9:45 - Third commercial break rankings: 1) Thompson [winning the crowd, winning his freedom]; 2) Paul [his niche loves him more than ever]; 3) McCain [clearly straight shootin' like the old days]; 4) Tancredo [nothing to lose with his honesty and wrongness]; 5) Romney [not as impressive as usual]; 6) Huckabee [Disappointing performance] ; 7) Giuliani [Only one good answer on the night] 8) Hunter [Completely underwhelming].
9:50 - Romney just got caught in his newest flipflop!
9:52 - Did anyone else hear some (dozens) Republican audience members booing the gay officer? Not a good job by that crowd.
9:58 - Um, "Hillary can be on the first rocket to Mars?!" Watch out for that one tomorrow. On the Mars issue: There will be an absolute outcry from this country if the first manned expedition to Mars does not have an American. International cooperation would be fine, but if there's no American involvement, it'd be the greatest ideological and technological disappointment in this country's history.
10:02 - Romney just called out John Edwards. I'LL KILL HIM! He also just lost South Carolina, but whatever.
10:05 - Giuliani and Huckabee are closing strong. I can't say the same for myself. I'm getting up in 7 and a half hours.
10:10 - Well, "huge" Red Sox fan Mitt Romney just added a year to the Red Sox former World Series drought (86, not 87). A perfect way to end a disappointing night for Romney... but still my favorite for the Republican nomination.
10:12 - Annnd scene. Sorry for the relatively week analysis tonight, but there's simply not enough time to get into all the issues and do a live blog. For analysis, check out my blog at Presidential Politics for America, as I'll be starting daily Iowa Caucus posts starting on Monday, December 3rd - one month until the Iowa Caucus in both parties.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Huckabee Surging in Iowa
Weekly Presidential Politics - 11/21/07
As predicted by my blog after the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, Mike Huckabee is making a run at the Iowa Caucus. This just in from Real Clear Politics:
Republicans (ABCNews/Washington Post poll)
Romney 28 (+2 vs. last poll July 26-31)
Huckabee 24 (+16)
Thompson 15 (+2)
Giuliani 13 (-1)
McCain 6 (-2)
Paul 6 (+4)
Now, pundits across the country, in their classic insta-reactionary tradition, are taking Iowa away from Romney. If these prognosticators end up being right, even a second place Iowa finish effectively ends the Romney campaign.
Which is why it's not going to happen.
Romney will spend every last nickel of his billions of nickels to win the Iowa Caucus. If polls are still close by the end of December, Iowans can expect a blitzkrieg of ad-buys and "paid volunteers" unlike any in political history, and it'll be courtesy of Mitt Romney.
What's most interesting about the latest poll is not that Mitt Romney is losing control of Iowa polls, but rather that a Huckabee bump has meant national Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani has slipped to fourth in the country's opening caucus. FOURTH. Fickle voters in New Hampshire and beyond will need to be very sure of their Giuliani vote to support a candidate that showed so poorly in a classic benchmark state, especially when the story on every cable news network will be sinking their claws into (remember - insta-reactionary) is about a reeling Giuliani campaign. Every social conservative who barely convinced themselves to support Giuliani will run to the closest conservative competitor.
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee will both be spinning the heck out of their top finishes and can ride the resulting free coverage, momentum, and huge added influx of money into the other primaries.
December will be a fascinating month, which is why I'm doing this.
As predicted by my blog after the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, Mike Huckabee is making a run at the Iowa Caucus. This just in from Real Clear Politics:
Republicans (ABCNews/Washington Post poll)
Romney 28 (+2 vs. last poll July 26-31)
Huckabee 24 (+16)
Thompson 15 (+2)
Giuliani 13 (-1)
McCain 6 (-2)
Paul 6 (+4)
Now, pundits across the country, in their classic insta-reactionary tradition, are taking Iowa away from Romney. If these prognosticators end up being right, even a second place Iowa finish effectively ends the Romney campaign.
Which is why it's not going to happen.
Romney will spend every last nickel of his billions of nickels to win the Iowa Caucus. If polls are still close by the end of December, Iowans can expect a blitzkrieg of ad-buys and "paid volunteers" unlike any in political history, and it'll be courtesy of Mitt Romney.
What's most interesting about the latest poll is not that Mitt Romney is losing control of Iowa polls, but rather that a Huckabee bump has meant national Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani has slipped to fourth in the country's opening caucus. FOURTH. Fickle voters in New Hampshire and beyond will need to be very sure of their Giuliani vote to support a candidate that showed so poorly in a classic benchmark state, especially when the story on every cable news network will be sinking their claws into (remember - insta-reactionary) is about a reeling Giuliani campaign. Every social conservative who barely convinced themselves to support Giuliani will run to the closest conservative competitor.
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee will both be spinning the heck out of their top finishes and can ride the resulting free coverage, momentum, and huge added influx of money into the other primaries.
December will be a fascinating month, which is why I'm doing this.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Republican Presidential Debate Diary
Weekly Presidential Politics - 10/10/07
Last night, newest official presidential candidate Fred Thompson joined the rest of the Republican field for the CNBC Debate, marking Thompson’s first appearance at a presidential debate. Here is my diary of the event.
4:00 – Co-hosting with Chris Matthews is Maria Bartiromo. (Yes, she was available.)
4:02 – Fred Thompson appropriately starts things off. Equally appropriate, he frequently stammers, pauses, and uses words like rosy.
4:04 – Romney does an excellent, organized job with his first response. As the most prominent governor in the race, a debate on managing an economy is right in his wheel house. Of course, that might not matter, as he’s also the most prominent Mormon in the race.
4:08 – Giuliani easily turns a question on hedge funds into a reason to nominate him because he has the best chance to beat a Democrat. I outlined this as his inevitable strategy early this year. His ticket to the nomination was never security. It was electability.
4:09 – And here comes Ron Paul bringing the sense. Yes, the country is richer… but that does not mean the average American is.
4:10 – Rudy Giuliani’s talking about the Yankees on a public platform, John McCain just said “straight talk,” and I was home from school by 3:30. Did I just hop in a time machine and go back to 2000?
4:15 – Duncan Hunter. I mean come on.
4:16 – For an actor, Fred Thompson does a horrendous job remembering his lines.
4:17 – Sam Brownback just criticized a random Kansas constituent for wanting, “A new hospital.” Those bastard Kansasites! Who do they think they are? Don’t we know we’re in a war??
4:21 – Hey, did you know Rudy Giuliani cut taxes in New York City 23 times? He should really mention that more often then every day of his life.
4:23 – Romney and Giuliani are going back and forth, and why not, considering they will be the only two candidates still going on February 6th.
4:31 – Romney points out that he is the candidate with the most business experience. It’s a calculated risk, deciding that this is a desirable trait, but anything that distinguishes you from this field is probably a good thing.
4:36 – John McCain, “It sounds like a lot of fun to bash the Chinese and others…” Line of the night.
4:37 –Fred Thompson’s doing a terrible job. What’s worse is that he knows it. This is not the man that’s going to rally the conservatives, which was his only ticket to the dance.
4:39 – Does anyone else think Sam Brownback looks a lot like Jimmy Kimmel? Does anyone else think they’d be more comfortable with Jimmy Kimmel as President?
And here' commercial break as I approach my word limit. Back at the end for more thoughts.
-----
All right, the debate just wrapped up. As usual, I was most impressed with McCain, Huckabee, and Paul, the lot of whom make up the second tier in the race. Maybe there's something to say about not being a contender that allows you to do a better job at these debates. Though I have a distinct disagreement with each of them (McCain - the war; Huckabee - the national sales tax; Paul - where do I begin?), I respect their consistency, intelligence, and the way their articulate their issues.
What most frustrated me this afternoon was that most of the candidates want to fix many things and address many issues (bridges, roads, borders, energy) but also want to cut spending and cut taxes (revenues). It's an odd platform, yet it's the GOP norm. They don't want to raise taxes and they'll spend a lot of money, even though they tell you they won't. When they do, many Americans just worry about the tax relief, and up go the unchecked deficits.
That's why Paul and Huckabee make so much more sense than the rest. Paul truly wants to reduce taxing and spending, and he offers a plethora of examples. While I fundamentally disagree with Paul on almost all issues and think that he would make a horrific President, I have respect coming out of my ears for him, because he's consistent in his ideology and it actually makes sense, if small government is the kind of thing you like.
Paul and Huckabee, while other candidates couldn't stop glowing about the strong and growing economy, articulate a fact that many Democrats are screaming at the television whenever a President Bush or Sean Hannity is bragging about a country that's getting richer. The money is going to the rich and most Americans are not feeling this economic "boom!" Yes, we have more money than ever, and stocks are booming, but the money is flowing to a minority of the people. The majority of the people's earning power has actually dropped in this "strong and growing economy."
For a simplified example that does not take into account interest rates, say Tom, Dick, and Harry make $50,000 in the year 2007. In the year 2008, Tom makes $100,000 while Dick and Harry drop to $40,000 each. As a group, they're making more money, right? As a group, they are objectively doing better ($180,000) than they were before ($150,000), right? Well, yeah, that's true. Objectively speaking, the group is doing better. But individually, more people are doing worse than better.
And that's America.
Last night, newest official presidential candidate Fred Thompson joined the rest of the Republican field for the CNBC Debate, marking Thompson’s first appearance at a presidential debate. Here is my diary of the event.
4:00 – Co-hosting with Chris Matthews is Maria Bartiromo. (Yes, she was available.)
4:02 – Fred Thompson appropriately starts things off. Equally appropriate, he frequently stammers, pauses, and uses words like rosy.
4:04 – Romney does an excellent, organized job with his first response. As the most prominent governor in the race, a debate on managing an economy is right in his wheel house. Of course, that might not matter, as he’s also the most prominent Mormon in the race.
4:08 – Giuliani easily turns a question on hedge funds into a reason to nominate him because he has the best chance to beat a Democrat. I outlined this as his inevitable strategy early this year. His ticket to the nomination was never security. It was electability.
4:09 – And here comes Ron Paul bringing the sense. Yes, the country is richer… but that does not mean the average American is.
4:10 – Rudy Giuliani’s talking about the Yankees on a public platform, John McCain just said “straight talk,” and I was home from school by 3:30. Did I just hop in a time machine and go back to 2000?
4:15 – Duncan Hunter. I mean come on.
4:16 – For an actor, Fred Thompson does a horrendous job remembering his lines.
4:17 – Sam Brownback just criticized a random Kansas constituent for wanting, “A new hospital.” Those bastard Kansasites! Who do they think they are? Don’t we know we’re in a war??
4:21 – Hey, did you know Rudy Giuliani cut taxes in New York City 23 times? He should really mention that more often then every day of his life.
4:23 – Romney and Giuliani are going back and forth, and why not, considering they will be the only two candidates still going on February 6th.
4:31 – Romney points out that he is the candidate with the most business experience. It’s a calculated risk, deciding that this is a desirable trait, but anything that distinguishes you from this field is probably a good thing.
4:36 – John McCain, “It sounds like a lot of fun to bash the Chinese and others…” Line of the night.
4:37 –Fred Thompson’s doing a terrible job. What’s worse is that he knows it. This is not the man that’s going to rally the conservatives, which was his only ticket to the dance.
4:39 – Does anyone else think Sam Brownback looks a lot like Jimmy Kimmel? Does anyone else think they’d be more comfortable with Jimmy Kimmel as President?
And here' commercial break as I approach my word limit. Back at the end for more thoughts.
-----
All right, the debate just wrapped up. As usual, I was most impressed with McCain, Huckabee, and Paul, the lot of whom make up the second tier in the race. Maybe there's something to say about not being a contender that allows you to do a better job at these debates. Though I have a distinct disagreement with each of them (McCain - the war; Huckabee - the national sales tax; Paul - where do I begin?), I respect their consistency, intelligence, and the way their articulate their issues.
What most frustrated me this afternoon was that most of the candidates want to fix many things and address many issues (bridges, roads, borders, energy) but also want to cut spending and cut taxes (revenues). It's an odd platform, yet it's the GOP norm. They don't want to raise taxes and they'll spend a lot of money, even though they tell you they won't. When they do, many Americans just worry about the tax relief, and up go the unchecked deficits.
That's why Paul and Huckabee make so much more sense than the rest. Paul truly wants to reduce taxing and spending, and he offers a plethora of examples. While I fundamentally disagree with Paul on almost all issues and think that he would make a horrific President, I have respect coming out of my ears for him, because he's consistent in his ideology and it actually makes sense, if small government is the kind of thing you like.
Paul and Huckabee, while other candidates couldn't stop glowing about the strong and growing economy, articulate a fact that many Democrats are screaming at the television whenever a President Bush or Sean Hannity is bragging about a country that's getting richer. The money is going to the rich and most Americans are not feeling this economic "boom!" Yes, we have more money than ever, and stocks are booming, but the money is flowing to a minority of the people. The majority of the people's earning power has actually dropped in this "strong and growing economy."
For a simplified example that does not take into account interest rates, say Tom, Dick, and Harry make $50,000 in the year 2007. In the year 2008, Tom makes $100,000 while Dick and Harry drop to $40,000 each. As a group, they're making more money, right? As a group, they are objectively doing better ($180,000) than they were before ($150,000), right? Well, yeah, that's true. Objectively speaking, the group is doing better. But individually, more people are doing worse than better.
And that's America.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Summer Series - Mitt Romney
Weekly Presidential Politics - 8/15/07
The ’07 Seven Candidates of Summer Series
Previous candidates: Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Fred Thompson, and the "Other Guys."
Now it's time for the favorites. First, for the GOP...
Mitt Romney
This week, the Summer Series blends nicely with current events. The recent Ames Iowa Straw Poll saw a healthy victory for Mitt Romney, whose 4,500 votes bested second place Mike Huckabee by 2,000. Before addressing the Romney candidacy as a whole, let's first address the significance of Romney's performance this weekend.
Romney's domination of the Iowa Straw Poll was completely expected, and therefore not nearly as big of a victory as the numbers show. With Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and John McCain not even trying to win the ISP, Romney was supposed to trump the field while the second and third tier candidates jockeyed for a strong second place finish. Furthermore, Romney spared no expense to guarantee a victory, outspending the rest of the field combined. Still, a win is a win, and Romney should see a slight bump in numbers across the country.
The Iowa Straw Poll results are a great example of Romney's strategy in the Republican primary. His allocation of resources in Iowa and New Hampshire is already making him money elsewhere, exampled by the media coverage of the ISP attracting voters and money across the country. Furthermore, potential Romney voters across the country will be attracted to his healthy Iowa and New Hampshire polls numbers, despite him not spending any extra cash outside of those two locations. The more Republican voters see him as a legitimate candidate who can win the nomination, the more money he'll raise and the more voters he'll attract.
Rudy Giuliani still leads national polls among Republicans with Fred Thompson almost always placing second, but with horse race coverage a very real aspect of the primary system, the winner of the early primaries are in the best position to win the nomination, most recently evidenced in 2004 by John Kerry and John Edwards overtaking Howard Dean just by defeating him in Iowa. In Iowa, Mitt Romney was trouncing the competition, even before the Iowa Straw Poll. He's led all Iowa polls for months, sometimes by as much as double digits. We should fully expect him to win the kick-off caucus.
Examining the primaries after Iowa, Romney is competitive in Nevada poll numbers, and he leads most New Hampshire polls. An Iowa Caucus victory for Romney would only strengthen his chances in those two states, perhaps securing a victory in both. Three wins there, or at least two firsts and a second, would send Romney off and running, especially with Republicans hesitant to support the socially liberal Giuliani.
In sum, regardless of current national numbers, Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States.
The ’07 Seven Candidates of Summer Series
Previous candidates: Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Fred Thompson, and the "Other Guys."
Now it's time for the favorites. First, for the GOP...
Mitt Romney
This week, the Summer Series blends nicely with current events. The recent Ames Iowa Straw Poll saw a healthy victory for Mitt Romney, whose 4,500 votes bested second place Mike Huckabee by 2,000. Before addressing the Romney candidacy as a whole, let's first address the significance of Romney's performance this weekend.
Romney's domination of the Iowa Straw Poll was completely expected, and therefore not nearly as big of a victory as the numbers show. With Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and John McCain not even trying to win the ISP, Romney was supposed to trump the field while the second and third tier candidates jockeyed for a strong second place finish. Furthermore, Romney spared no expense to guarantee a victory, outspending the rest of the field combined. Still, a win is a win, and Romney should see a slight bump in numbers across the country.
The Iowa Straw Poll results are a great example of Romney's strategy in the Republican primary. His allocation of resources in Iowa and New Hampshire is already making him money elsewhere, exampled by the media coverage of the ISP attracting voters and money across the country. Furthermore, potential Romney voters across the country will be attracted to his healthy Iowa and New Hampshire polls numbers, despite him not spending any extra cash outside of those two locations. The more Republican voters see him as a legitimate candidate who can win the nomination, the more money he'll raise and the more voters he'll attract.
Rudy Giuliani still leads national polls among Republicans with Fred Thompson almost always placing second, but with horse race coverage a very real aspect of the primary system, the winner of the early primaries are in the best position to win the nomination, most recently evidenced in 2004 by John Kerry and John Edwards overtaking Howard Dean just by defeating him in Iowa. In Iowa, Mitt Romney was trouncing the competition, even before the Iowa Straw Poll. He's led all Iowa polls for months, sometimes by as much as double digits. We should fully expect him to win the kick-off caucus.
Examining the primaries after Iowa, Romney is competitive in Nevada poll numbers, and he leads most New Hampshire polls. An Iowa Caucus victory for Romney would only strengthen his chances in those two states, perhaps securing a victory in both. Three wins there, or at least two firsts and a second, would send Romney off and running, especially with Republicans hesitant to support the socially liberal Giuliani.
In sum, regardless of current national numbers, Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States.
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
Summer Series - Fred Thomson
Weekly Presidential Politics - 8/1/07
The ’07 Seven Candidates of Summer Series
Fred Thomson
What I wrote on the 7th of June this year: "He has conservatives abuzz as possibly the first viable true conservative. Until he gets in the race, however, I don't it can be argued that he's viable or a true conservative. Still, the mere fact that a candidate potentially fits the bill goes to show you how desperate the GOP is for that candidate."
This has never been more true. The Republican primary is a mess. The two top contenders, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, are a Mormon and a social liberal, respectively. The previous frontrunner, John McCain, reported less money than second-tier-at-best Ron Paul in the second fiscal quarter. True conservatives and religious beloveds, Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee, rarely register in Republican polls and have serious problems fundraising with the big boys.
Simply, there is a vacuum of power in the Republican primary. The potential to fill that vacuum remains. Two Republicans have the ability to fill that void: Newt Gingrich and Fred Thomson. The former may not run, while the latter is about a month away from announcing, therefore it is the latter that has the most potential to be a player in this race.
What makes the Thomson candidacy very interesting is that he's doing great in the polls without even being an official candidate yet! For example, in the latest Rasmussen Poll, taken during the week of July 22, Fred Thomson was tied with Rudy Giuliani in first place in national Republican polls with 25%. Other polls consistently have Thomson polling in the top 3 both in national polls and in all-important primary states Iowa and South Carolina. And Thomson hasn't even started spending money yet!
His success before he even gets started is a direct result of the two factors already discussed: the displeasure of most Republicans with their leading candidates and Thompson's potential to be a true conservative. Therefore, before Thompson enters the race, because Thompson hasn't entered the race, he is still the conservatives' dream candidate. There is nothing wrong with him like all the other candidates.
Yet.
See, Thompson is too good to be true for the GOP, I promise you. As soon as this guy gets into the frey, his weaknesses will show, most specifically his role as conservative savior of the 2008 Republicans. Frankly, that just can't be his role to claim. For proof, here's Newsweek, the Washington Times, and a stinging editorial from a conservative author.
So while Thompson looks golden from afar, it's not until the Republican voters see him up close that they realize the 64-year-old (65 in two weeks) actor-turned-Senator-turned-actor actually has some blemishes on that balding head of his. (And yes, that was a blatant reminder that he's pretty old. Just imagine when he has to start debating Mitt Romney. Can you say Nixon-Kennedy 1960?)
Yes, right now, Fred Thompson looks golden to the GOP, and many believe that there is no more accurate application of the term "fool's gold."
The ’07 Seven Candidates of Summer Series
Fred Thomson
What I wrote on the 7th of June this year: "He has conservatives abuzz as possibly the first viable true conservative. Until he gets in the race, however, I don't it can be argued that he's viable or a true conservative. Still, the mere fact that a candidate potentially fits the bill goes to show you how desperate the GOP is for that candidate."
This has never been more true. The Republican primary is a mess. The two top contenders, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, are a Mormon and a social liberal, respectively. The previous frontrunner, John McCain, reported less money than second-tier-at-best Ron Paul in the second fiscal quarter. True conservatives and religious beloveds, Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee, rarely register in Republican polls and have serious problems fundraising with the big boys.
Simply, there is a vacuum of power in the Republican primary. The potential to fill that vacuum remains. Two Republicans have the ability to fill that void: Newt Gingrich and Fred Thomson. The former may not run, while the latter is about a month away from announcing, therefore it is the latter that has the most potential to be a player in this race.
What makes the Thomson candidacy very interesting is that he's doing great in the polls without even being an official candidate yet! For example, in the latest Rasmussen Poll, taken during the week of July 22, Fred Thomson was tied with Rudy Giuliani in first place in national Republican polls with 25%. Other polls consistently have Thomson polling in the top 3 both in national polls and in all-important primary states Iowa and South Carolina. And Thomson hasn't even started spending money yet!
His success before he even gets started is a direct result of the two factors already discussed: the displeasure of most Republicans with their leading candidates and Thompson's potential to be a true conservative. Therefore, before Thompson enters the race, because Thompson hasn't entered the race, he is still the conservatives' dream candidate. There is nothing wrong with him like all the other candidates.
Yet.
See, Thompson is too good to be true for the GOP, I promise you. As soon as this guy gets into the frey, his weaknesses will show, most specifically his role as conservative savior of the 2008 Republicans. Frankly, that just can't be his role to claim. For proof, here's Newsweek, the Washington Times, and a stinging editorial from a conservative author.
So while Thompson looks golden from afar, it's not until the Republican voters see him up close that they realize the 64-year-old (65 in two weeks) actor-turned-Senator-turned-actor actually has some blemishes on that balding head of his. (And yes, that was a blatant reminder that he's pretty old. Just imagine when he has to start debating Mitt Romney. Can you say Nixon-Kennedy 1960?)
Yes, right now, Fred Thompson looks golden to the GOP, and many believe that there is no more accurate application of the term "fool's gold."
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Summer Series - John McCain
Weekly Presidential Politics - 7/11/07
The ’07 Seven Candidates of Summer Series
Barack Obama John McCain
(Preface: Originally, my plan was to tackle Barack Obama today, in an effort to rotate Democrats and Republicans throughout the summer, but recent developments make an analysis of the John McCain candidacy imperative... while it still exists.)
Okay, perhaps the preface was a bit over the top. John McCain's candidacy is not within a week of death, but let's be honest, it's on life support, and there are many who think the plug should be pulled.
McCain's Hell Week '07 began on Monday morning when it was learned that second-tier-at-best candidate Ron Paul had more cash on hand than the senior Senator from Arizona. This was followed by Monday afternoon and Tuesday's overreactions of what this meant, but the overreactions themselves had ramifications, dragging down the McCain campaign further. (Nothing hurts a candidate like pessimism. Except maybe bullets.)
Then of course came yesterday's news that two of McCain's top advisors, and soon lesser advisors, were acrimoniously departing the sinking ship.
This week, I have received no less than a half dozen emails asking me my thoughts on these developments. After all, I predicted John McCain as the eventual Republican nominee. So here's the question that must be asked: What the hell has happened to the John McCain campaign?
Well, where to begin? The top five reasons the McCain candidacy is underperforming:
1. There is never any good news out of Iraq to which he can attach himself. This kills him in a general election.
No news here. He's been President Bush's greatest ally in the war in Iraq, with the possible exception of Dick Cheney and Laura Bush. And while this stance was never popular, it has never been MORE unpopular than it is now. The Iraq War grows more unpopular by the month. Even key Republicans (see: Luger, Dick) are deserting the President. At one point, unequivocal support of the war in Iraq was not political suicide. Now, it just might be.
2. His stance on immigration greatly alienated the Republican base. This kills him in a primary election.
John McCain's immigration stance is an example of him legislating his beliefs instead of what is popular with his party, similar to the famous McCain-Feingold bill. Note to McCain: Teaming up with Russ Feingold or, in the case of the Immigration Bill, Ted Kennedy, on any bipartisan bill will not be looked on kindly by the Republican Party.
3. His strategy of being openly honest and straight-forward, hoping his dedication to unpopular issues because he believed in them would resonate with the voters.
Numbers one and two play a role here. His principled positions on issues he cares about are admirable only in the regard that they are, in fact, principled. He passionately believes in them, and hoped that eventually this facet of his character, seemingly incongruous with his fellow politicians, would set him apart from the pack. Of course, the problem is, voters disagree with these key issues, and because they know he means what he says, they cannot vote for him. Do'h!
4. Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney.
These two men have run terrific campaigns. Rudy Giuliani is on top of most polls despite being out of step with social conservatives. Frankly, it's been a brilliant campaign to date, though this blogger still questions his potential to win the nomination when Republican voters further educate themselves on the issues, especially in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina. Mitt Romney has taken single-digit polling numbers last year and turned them into strong favorable numbers, and many call him the odds on favorite to win the Republican nomination. In comparison, McCain has ran a very weak campaign. Last year, he was polling ahead of both of these other frontrunners. It was McCain's nomination to lose and he lost it. Can he get it back?
5. A combination of the above has led to an enormous shortfall in fundraising.
No one wants to throw money onto a sinking ship. This perpetuates the mediocrity of the campaign. Without proper funds, John McCain will have a very difficult time pulling himself out of this rut. Indeed, one of the reasons McCain parted ways with two of his top advisors was because McCain expected to have and be raising a LOT more money at this stage of the campaign.
Undeniably, the John McCain campaign is underperforming, and without a John Kerry-like resurgence, he might not make it to Iowa.
The ’07 Seven Candidates of Summer Series
(Preface: Originally, my plan was to tackle Barack Obama today, in an effort to rotate Democrats and Republicans throughout the summer, but recent developments make an analysis of the John McCain candidacy imperative... while it still exists.)
Okay, perhaps the preface was a bit over the top. John McCain's candidacy is not within a week of death, but let's be honest, it's on life support, and there are many who think the plug should be pulled.
McCain's Hell Week '07 began on Monday morning when it was learned that second-tier-at-best candidate Ron Paul had more cash on hand than the senior Senator from Arizona. This was followed by Monday afternoon and Tuesday's overreactions of what this meant, but the overreactions themselves had ramifications, dragging down the McCain campaign further. (Nothing hurts a candidate like pessimism. Except maybe bullets.)
Then of course came yesterday's news that two of McCain's top advisors, and soon lesser advisors, were acrimoniously departing the sinking ship.
This week, I have received no less than a half dozen emails asking me my thoughts on these developments. After all, I predicted John McCain as the eventual Republican nominee. So here's the question that must be asked: What the hell has happened to the John McCain campaign?
Well, where to begin? The top five reasons the McCain candidacy is underperforming:
1. There is never any good news out of Iraq to which he can attach himself. This kills him in a general election.
No news here. He's been President Bush's greatest ally in the war in Iraq, with the possible exception of Dick Cheney and Laura Bush. And while this stance was never popular, it has never been MORE unpopular than it is now. The Iraq War grows more unpopular by the month. Even key Republicans (see: Luger, Dick) are deserting the President. At one point, unequivocal support of the war in Iraq was not political suicide. Now, it just might be.
2. His stance on immigration greatly alienated the Republican base. This kills him in a primary election.
John McCain's immigration stance is an example of him legislating his beliefs instead of what is popular with his party, similar to the famous McCain-Feingold bill. Note to McCain: Teaming up with Russ Feingold or, in the case of the Immigration Bill, Ted Kennedy, on any bipartisan bill will not be looked on kindly by the Republican Party.
3. His strategy of being openly honest and straight-forward, hoping his dedication to unpopular issues because he believed in them would resonate with the voters.
Numbers one and two play a role here. His principled positions on issues he cares about are admirable only in the regard that they are, in fact, principled. He passionately believes in them, and hoped that eventually this facet of his character, seemingly incongruous with his fellow politicians, would set him apart from the pack. Of course, the problem is, voters disagree with these key issues, and because they know he means what he says, they cannot vote for him. Do'h!
4. Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney.
These two men have run terrific campaigns. Rudy Giuliani is on top of most polls despite being out of step with social conservatives. Frankly, it's been a brilliant campaign to date, though this blogger still questions his potential to win the nomination when Republican voters further educate themselves on the issues, especially in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina. Mitt Romney has taken single-digit polling numbers last year and turned them into strong favorable numbers, and many call him the odds on favorite to win the Republican nomination. In comparison, McCain has ran a very weak campaign. Last year, he was polling ahead of both of these other frontrunners. It was McCain's nomination to lose and he lost it. Can he get it back?
5. A combination of the above has led to an enormous shortfall in fundraising.
No one wants to throw money onto a sinking ship. This perpetuates the mediocrity of the campaign. Without proper funds, John McCain will have a very difficult time pulling himself out of this rut. Indeed, one of the reasons McCain parted ways with two of his top advisors was because McCain expected to have and be raising a LOT more money at this stage of the campaign.
Undeniably, the John McCain campaign is underperforming, and without a John Kerry-like resurgence, he might not make it to Iowa.
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
Summer Series - Rudy Giuliani
Weekly Presidential Politics - 7/4/07
The ’07 Seven Candidates of Summer Series
Rudy Giuliani
Of the seven candidates that have a chance to be President, it’s former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani who consistently has the biggest leads in a party's national polls. It’s Republican Rudy Giuliani who most successfully matches up with Democrats in hypothetical head-to-head match ups. It’s cross-dressin’ Rudy Giuliani who has positioned himself as the Republican with most crossover appeal come November 2008.
Yet, of the seven candidates that have a chance to be President, Rudy Giuliani is the least likely to garner his party’s nomination.
How much longer can his lack of conservative values possibly survive the Republican Primary vetting process? Is the conservative base ever going to feel comfortable voting for a guy who is liberal or neutral on core conservative issues like gay marriage, abortion, and gun control? In a party that touts morals and values as central tenets of its ideology, will the candidate with the most troubled family life and personal history be able to overcome this reputation to be the Republican survivor?
It’s unlikely.
Radio host and author James Dobson, who holds significant power over a sizeable conservative coalition, with evangelical influence greater than that of Jerry Falwell or Pat Robertson at their peak, is on the record as saying that he, “cannot and will not support Giuliani under any circumstances.” This is not only trouble for a Giuliani nomination, it also means that should Giuliani survive the primary, there is a possibility that a third-party conservative would emerge to the right of both candidates in the general election. Clearly, this would cut into the Republican base, allowing a Democratic walkover, regardless of the candidate, in November.
It’s also uncertain how much longer Giuliani can scare the American people into thinking that he’s the guy that will keep them safe. A spotty security record as a mayor of a city is typically not as great of a security blanket as say, a four-term Senator from Arizona with military experience and tenure on military committees. It’s generally understood that Rudy Giuliani must keep the focus on terrorism and national security if he has any chance to win this thing, but a seemingly capable security candidate in John McCain, one who is undoubtedly more conservative and proven than Giuliani, would seem to be the better bet for Republicans.
No, the GOP will not nominate Rudy Giuliani. If you ask me, they’re just waiting for the alternative to emerge. No one wants to come out and support a McCain or a Thomson or a Romney if they’re just going to fade come primary time. As soon as one of conservative alternatives clearly emerge as the chief competitor to Giuliani, the base will flock to that alternative. Like James Dobson, most conservatives simply cannot support a Giuliani candidacy.
Finally, perhaps the most important hindrance to a Rudy Giuliani nomination are the early primary states. Iowa is not a Rudy Giuliani state. He’s also behind in Nevada and New Hampshire. Long story short, if he doesn’t find a way to win the early primaries, he’ll have a lot of trouble making up that ground down the stretch. He cannot afford to wait until SuperDuper Tuesday on February 5th to make his move. If he’s not doing well heading into that day, Republicans will have yet another reason to not support him. And they won’t.
The ’07 Seven Candidates of Summer Series
Rudy Giuliani
Of the seven candidates that have a chance to be President, it’s former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani who consistently has the biggest leads in a party's national polls. It’s Republican Rudy Giuliani who most successfully matches up with Democrats in hypothetical head-to-head match ups. It’s cross-dressin’ Rudy Giuliani who has positioned himself as the Republican with most crossover appeal come November 2008.
Yet, of the seven candidates that have a chance to be President, Rudy Giuliani is the least likely to garner his party’s nomination.
How much longer can his lack of conservative values possibly survive the Republican Primary vetting process? Is the conservative base ever going to feel comfortable voting for a guy who is liberal or neutral on core conservative issues like gay marriage, abortion, and gun control? In a party that touts morals and values as central tenets of its ideology, will the candidate with the most troubled family life and personal history be able to overcome this reputation to be the Republican survivor?
It’s unlikely.
Radio host and author James Dobson, who holds significant power over a sizeable conservative coalition, with evangelical influence greater than that of Jerry Falwell or Pat Robertson at their peak, is on the record as saying that he, “cannot and will not support Giuliani under any circumstances.” This is not only trouble for a Giuliani nomination, it also means that should Giuliani survive the primary, there is a possibility that a third-party conservative would emerge to the right of both candidates in the general election. Clearly, this would cut into the Republican base, allowing a Democratic walkover, regardless of the candidate, in November.
It’s also uncertain how much longer Giuliani can scare the American people into thinking that he’s the guy that will keep them safe. A spotty security record as a mayor of a city is typically not as great of a security blanket as say, a four-term Senator from Arizona with military experience and tenure on military committees. It’s generally understood that Rudy Giuliani must keep the focus on terrorism and national security if he has any chance to win this thing, but a seemingly capable security candidate in John McCain, one who is undoubtedly more conservative and proven than Giuliani, would seem to be the better bet for Republicans.
No, the GOP will not nominate Rudy Giuliani. If you ask me, they’re just waiting for the alternative to emerge. No one wants to come out and support a McCain or a Thomson or a Romney if they’re just going to fade come primary time. As soon as one of conservative alternatives clearly emerge as the chief competitor to Giuliani, the base will flock to that alternative. Like James Dobson, most conservatives simply cannot support a Giuliani candidacy.
Finally, perhaps the most important hindrance to a Rudy Giuliani nomination are the early primary states. Iowa is not a Rudy Giuliani state. He’s also behind in Nevada and New Hampshire. Long story short, if he doesn’t find a way to win the early primaries, he’ll have a lot of trouble making up that ground down the stretch. He cannot afford to wait until SuperDuper Tuesday on February 5th to make his move. If he’s not doing well heading into that day, Republicans will have yet another reason to not support him. And they won’t.
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Handicapping the Republican Field
Weekly Presidential Politics - 6/6/07
Someone made a crack at me in the last week, reminding me that there was another political party that has candidates running for President. It is true - I have been concentrating more on the Democrats of late. The reason for this is simple. You may not see it yet, but John McCain is going to win the nomination. I have yet, however, determined the eventual Democratic nominee, therefore I spend more time breaking that race down. I consider it wide open among three (four with Gore) candidates, which I have stated ad nauseum.
However, since I've been called out on my affinity towards Democratic Primary blog posts, I will throw the Republican readers a bone and do a general overview of the GOP candidates. This, of course, is taking advantage of the recent buzz surrounding both the Fred Thomson candidacy as well as last night's Republican debate.
Here are the thirteen (thirteen!) possible candidates for the Republican nomination, listed in likelihood to win the nomination, and in reverse order for dramatic effect.
13.Joe Lieber, whoops, sorry.
13. James Gilmore - The first quarter of 2007 saw Gilmore raise $174,790, which is approximately how much money Hillary Clinton made when she brushed her teeth this morning. Gilmore has no national name recognition and little money to change that.
12. Duncan Hunter - Like Gilmore and at least six other Republicans on this list, Hunter is billing himself as the only true conservative in the pack. (Isn't that funny?) I guess that's what happens when you don't trust the top tier candidates.
11. Tom Tancredo - Beware illegal immigrants, I think he's passing out leaflets trying to rally support for your mass execution. That way, you'll be dead...just like his campaign.
10. Tommy Thomson - Two weeks ago, Tommy Thomson offered a campaign stump speech to a town in New Hampshire. Seven people showed up. Moving on...
9. Ron Paul - The most libertarian candidate of either major party. You have to respect his consistency across the board. He wants to keep the government out of our pockets. Cut taxes, but cut spending, too. He was against the war from the beginning. The amount spent on a failed policy angers Paul, and it angers many conservatives. Unfortunately for the Congressman, he lacks the funds and recognition to make a run.
8. Chuck Hagel - Draft Hagel! One of only two (with Paul) anti-war Republicans in the race (Note: Hagel has yet to enter). He's been a harsh critic of the current administration, and fits a perfect niche out there - Republicans who are proud of their party but dislike President Bush.
7. Mike Huckabee - His authenticity impresses me. He seems genuine, he seems bright, he seems southern, he seems religious, he seems conservative, and he speaks articulately and honestly. Indeed, he seems like a great candidate for the GOP. So why isn't he higher? The man can't fundraise, finishing way back with only half a mil in the first quarter.
6. Fred Thomson - He has conservatives abuzz as possibly the first viable true conservative. Until he gets in the race, however, I don't it can be argued that he's viable or a true conservative. Still, the mere fact that a candidate potentially fits the bill goes to show you how desperate the GOP is for that candidate.
5. Newt Gingrich - Unbeknownst to most, this is the unannounced Republican candidate to keep your eye on. He's not nearly as likely to announce as Thomson, and if he does announce it'll be in the fall like Gore, but I don't think there's a smarter Republican in the field. I've never come across a man I disagree with more while at the same time being awed at his intelligence and ability to articulate a point. What I would do to have an ideological debate with him and get my ass handed to me.
4. Sam Brownback - I'd wager that if you ask the educated conservative, this is who they would vote for if it wasn't considered a lost cause. Ask around. It is this potential why I rank him directly after The Big Three.
3. Rudy Giuliani - Yes, he's been the leader in the polls and I've dropped him to #3. He just doesn't have the gas in the tank, folks. The guy's a Red Giant - burns bright for a while, but with a much shorter shelf life. Each debate will hurt him every time a non-national security issue comes up, and even his strength on national security is a house of cards. If I were his campaign manager (he should be so lucky), he needs to get a specific issue on the table as soon as possible: Who can beat the Democrats in November? Even then, this next guy might be the best answer to that question.
2. Mitt Romney - Romney more than ever has me questioning my confidence in a McCain nomination. I expect Romney to come on very strong. He wows me at every debate, every appearance. In fact, if it wasn't for his Mormonism and yet unabated flip-flopper moniker, I'd probably make him the favorite. And never forget the very real aesthetic issue: He looks the part.
1. John McCain - I'm sticking with him.
Someone made a crack at me in the last week, reminding me that there was another political party that has candidates running for President. It is true - I have been concentrating more on the Democrats of late. The reason for this is simple. You may not see it yet, but John McCain is going to win the nomination. I have yet, however, determined the eventual Democratic nominee, therefore I spend more time breaking that race down. I consider it wide open among three (four with Gore) candidates, which I have stated ad nauseum.
However, since I've been called out on my affinity towards Democratic Primary blog posts, I will throw the Republican readers a bone and do a general overview of the GOP candidates. This, of course, is taking advantage of the recent buzz surrounding both the Fred Thomson candidacy as well as last night's Republican debate.
Here are the thirteen (thirteen!) possible candidates for the Republican nomination, listed in likelihood to win the nomination, and in reverse order for dramatic effect.
13.
13. James Gilmore - The first quarter of 2007 saw Gilmore raise $174,790, which is approximately how much money Hillary Clinton made when she brushed her teeth this morning. Gilmore has no national name recognition and little money to change that.
12. Duncan Hunter - Like Gilmore and at least six other Republicans on this list, Hunter is billing himself as the only true conservative in the pack. (Isn't that funny?) I guess that's what happens when you don't trust the top tier candidates.
11. Tom Tancredo - Beware illegal immigrants, I think he's passing out leaflets trying to rally support for your mass execution. That way, you'll be dead...just like his campaign.
10. Tommy Thomson - Two weeks ago, Tommy Thomson offered a campaign stump speech to a town in New Hampshire. Seven people showed up. Moving on...
9. Ron Paul - The most libertarian candidate of either major party. You have to respect his consistency across the board. He wants to keep the government out of our pockets. Cut taxes, but cut spending, too. He was against the war from the beginning. The amount spent on a failed policy angers Paul, and it angers many conservatives. Unfortunately for the Congressman, he lacks the funds and recognition to make a run.
8. Chuck Hagel - Draft Hagel! One of only two (with Paul) anti-war Republicans in the race (Note: Hagel has yet to enter). He's been a harsh critic of the current administration, and fits a perfect niche out there - Republicans who are proud of their party but dislike President Bush.
7. Mike Huckabee - His authenticity impresses me. He seems genuine, he seems bright, he seems southern, he seems religious, he seems conservative, and he speaks articulately and honestly. Indeed, he seems like a great candidate for the GOP. So why isn't he higher? The man can't fundraise, finishing way back with only half a mil in the first quarter.
6. Fred Thomson - He has conservatives abuzz as possibly the first viable true conservative. Until he gets in the race, however, I don't it can be argued that he's viable or a true conservative. Still, the mere fact that a candidate potentially fits the bill goes to show you how desperate the GOP is for that candidate.
5. Newt Gingrich - Unbeknownst to most, this is the unannounced Republican candidate to keep your eye on. He's not nearly as likely to announce as Thomson, and if he does announce it'll be in the fall like Gore, but I don't think there's a smarter Republican in the field. I've never come across a man I disagree with more while at the same time being awed at his intelligence and ability to articulate a point. What I would do to have an ideological debate with him and get my ass handed to me.
4. Sam Brownback - I'd wager that if you ask the educated conservative, this is who they would vote for if it wasn't considered a lost cause. Ask around. It is this potential why I rank him directly after The Big Three.
3. Rudy Giuliani - Yes, he's been the leader in the polls and I've dropped him to #3. He just doesn't have the gas in the tank, folks. The guy's a Red Giant - burns bright for a while, but with a much shorter shelf life. Each debate will hurt him every time a non-national security issue comes up, and even his strength on national security is a house of cards. If I were his campaign manager (he should be so lucky), he needs to get a specific issue on the table as soon as possible: Who can beat the Democrats in November? Even then, this next guy might be the best answer to that question.
2. Mitt Romney - Romney more than ever has me questioning my confidence in a McCain nomination. I expect Romney to come on very strong. He wows me at every debate, every appearance. In fact, if it wasn't for his Mormonism and yet unabated flip-flopper moniker, I'd probably make him the favorite. And never forget the very real aesthetic issue: He looks the part.
1. John McCain - I'm sticking with him.
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
GOP's JFK?: Why Romney Might Win
Weekly Presidential Politics - 4/4/07
Of the six major announced candidates (Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Giuliani, McCain, and Romney) in the race for the 2008 White House, it has seemed for some time that Romney was the least renowned. It cannot be stated strongly enough: Mitt Romney is a legitimate candidate. Do not be surprised if he is accepting the GOP's nomination at next year's Republican convention.
Here is a list of reasons as to why Mitt Romney's campaign could do very well.
1. Money. Not only does Romney, as a successful former business executive, have a large amount of personal capital, but he has two key fundraising strengths. First, he has a plethora of business contacts from his work in the private sector. Second, the two frontrunners for the Republican Party raise red flags with the conservative base. Mitt Romney's conservative platform is the right wing's best bet to get one of their own elected. Therefore, a solid chunk of conservative donors are rushing to Romney, the nearest realistic conservative winner. (Brownback and Huckabee? Please.)
The proof of Romney's fundraising capabilities was evident in the recent first quarter disclosures. Romney shattered Republican fundraising records.
2. Process of Elimination. Giuliani and McCain have other distinct disadvantages. The leader in the polls, Rudy Giuliani, is unlikely to survive the meticulous vetting process of the Republican Primary cycle. Sooner or later, his liberal stances on abortion, gay marriage, and gun control will take a chunk out of his polling numbers. Moreover, the inevitable "family values" issues that motivate so many voters will submarine his chances. He's had two messy divorces and his son doesn't speak with him.
McCain is like a hummer with its back wheels spinning in mud. This campaign has the potential to be a wrecking machine, but it just can't seem to get going. The Iraq issue has been devastating, holding a usually terrific raiser of funds like McCain to third place in the Money Primary.
3. History. Not since Kennedy in 1960 has there been a Senator elected President. The rest have been Vice-Presidents (Bush I, Nixon, Johnson), and governors (strong recent trend of Bush II, Clinton, Reagan, Carter). Of the Big Six candidates, three (Clinton, Obama, and McCain) are sitting Senators. John Edwards is a former Senator. Rudy Giuliani's highest office was mayor, a position that never vaulted anyone to the Presidency. That leaves Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.
4. The Romney's look the part. Have you seen this family? They are good looking, athletic, great smiles, photogenic, and - tragically relevant - they’re white. Not since the Kennedy's has there been such a made-for-magazine-covers family. And with Giuliani toting his family values baggage, and the Clintons having their obvious history, and McCain being a divorcee himself who cheated on an ailing spouse, and Obama's family not looking like any family in Presidential history, that leaves only Romney and Edwards.
5. Mormonism can be worked around. The first thirty-three men to hold the office of President were all Protestants. Then came JFK (theme?). In September 1960, Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy delivered a speech where he defended his Catholicism as a personal choice that he would not push on the American people. Read the speech, it's brilliant. Now, 48 years later, Mitt Romney, the politician from Massachusetts, can make similar overtures in regards to his Mormonism.
Am I saying he’s going to win? No. I’m still leaning towards McCain, but would not be surprised by a Romney victory. It's a legitimate three-way race in both parties. That’s what makes this so fun!
Addendum: Extended this piece over at my blog, Presidential Politics for America.
Of the six major announced candidates (Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Giuliani, McCain, and Romney) in the race for the 2008 White House, it has seemed for some time that Romney was the least renowned. It cannot be stated strongly enough: Mitt Romney is a legitimate candidate. Do not be surprised if he is accepting the GOP's nomination at next year's Republican convention.
Here is a list of reasons as to why Mitt Romney's campaign could do very well.
1. Money. Not only does Romney, as a successful former business executive, have a large amount of personal capital, but he has two key fundraising strengths. First, he has a plethora of business contacts from his work in the private sector. Second, the two frontrunners for the Republican Party raise red flags with the conservative base. Mitt Romney's conservative platform is the right wing's best bet to get one of their own elected. Therefore, a solid chunk of conservative donors are rushing to Romney, the nearest realistic conservative winner. (Brownback and Huckabee? Please.)
The proof of Romney's fundraising capabilities was evident in the recent first quarter disclosures. Romney shattered Republican fundraising records.
2. Process of Elimination. Giuliani and McCain have other distinct disadvantages. The leader in the polls, Rudy Giuliani, is unlikely to survive the meticulous vetting process of the Republican Primary cycle. Sooner or later, his liberal stances on abortion, gay marriage, and gun control will take a chunk out of his polling numbers. Moreover, the inevitable "family values" issues that motivate so many voters will submarine his chances. He's had two messy divorces and his son doesn't speak with him.
McCain is like a hummer with its back wheels spinning in mud. This campaign has the potential to be a wrecking machine, but it just can't seem to get going. The Iraq issue has been devastating, holding a usually terrific raiser of funds like McCain to third place in the Money Primary.
3. History. Not since Kennedy in 1960 has there been a Senator elected President. The rest have been Vice-Presidents (Bush I, Nixon, Johnson), and governors (strong recent trend of Bush II, Clinton, Reagan, Carter). Of the Big Six candidates, three (Clinton, Obama, and McCain) are sitting Senators. John Edwards is a former Senator. Rudy Giuliani's highest office was mayor, a position that never vaulted anyone to the Presidency. That leaves Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.
4. The Romney's look the part. Have you seen this family? They are good looking, athletic, great smiles, photogenic, and - tragically relevant - they’re white. Not since the Kennedy's has there been such a made-for-magazine-covers family. And with Giuliani toting his family values baggage, and the Clintons having their obvious history, and McCain being a divorcee himself who cheated on an ailing spouse, and Obama's family not looking like any family in Presidential history, that leaves only Romney and Edwards.
5. Mormonism can be worked around. The first thirty-three men to hold the office of President were all Protestants. Then came JFK (theme?). In September 1960, Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy delivered a speech where he defended his Catholicism as a personal choice that he would not push on the American people. Read the speech, it's brilliant. Now, 48 years later, Mitt Romney, the politician from Massachusetts, can make similar overtures in regards to his Mormonism.
Am I saying he’s going to win? No. I’m still leaning towards McCain, but would not be surprised by a Romney victory. It's a legitimate three-way race in both parties. That’s what makes this so fun!
Addendum: Extended this piece over at my blog, Presidential Politics for America.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
