Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Save the Suspense: Democratic Primary Results Determined (Conclusion)

Weekly Presidential Politics - 3/21/07

Crucial to knowing my thought processes, deductions, assumptions, derivations, speculations, inferences, predictions, conclusions, and whatever else I'm talking about - excluding this sentence - familiarize yourself with Parts 1 and 2.

Save the Suspense: Democratic Primary Results Determined (Conclusion)


The DNC seems to like a new dish. Primary schedule - scrambled.

First, the decision to move the Nevada Caucus in front of the New Hampshire Primary changes the dynamic of the early primaries. One fortnight ago, I said that this adjustment, in regards to the Democratic Primary, was the single most significant development of the last year. Due to the added importance of Nevada, John Edwards will win the Democratic nomination. I'm still waiting for the talking heads to stop treating this like Hillary vs. Obama and catch up to me, but alas, we will wait.

The Nevada facelift is not the only difference in the primary schedule. Many other states, wanting to increase the political weight of their primaries, are making amendments, motions, and decisions to move up their primary date. Unfortunately for these ambitious states, Democratic Party rules prohibit moving up in front of February 5th, so they cannot move ahead of the four states mentioned last week. The remaining competitions are allowed to be held on or after that date.

As many as twenty states are looking to move up to February 5th, that earliest allowed date. Instead of the traditional Super Tuesday, a primary day in early March when at most ten states are up for grabs, 2008 will be the birth of Hyper Tuesday, when a majority of delegates will be up for grabs. Again, the motive of the states is to increase the importance of their primary.

Methinks their plan will backfire.

When 15-20 states have their primary on the same day, this will devalue each one of those states. First, candidates cannot spend time in all of these states. Second, and most important, remember that horse race coverage, and voters' subconscious or conscious desire to vote for a winner, will mean whoever is in the lead after the first four states will probably win the most states on February 5th, effectively cinching the nomination. At least that's what the historical pattern indicates.

And who will be leading on February fourth? As explained the last couple weeks: John Edwards, who has broad support across the socioeconomic and geographic spectrum. Unlike Senators Clinton and Obama, few people will dislike Edwards or predict he cannot win a general. Once he is leading after the first four states - and he will be - all parts of Democrat America can talk themselves into voting for him on Hyper Tuesday. And the rest, as they say, is academic.

Sorry to ruin the suspense.

1 comment:

Connecticut Man 1 said...

California moving their primary up may throw a major wrench in your logic.

There is a place where (unfortunately IMHO) Clinton's war chest MIGHT be a major factor. The country-sized delegation there provides a lot of votes.

Of course, that is only IF they don't see through her complete non-positional statements and near invisibility on important issues (much like Obama) on nearly everything in the last 2 years?