Click on the above link to get yourself caught up. In sum, I stated that three factors, more than any others, play a role in winning a presidential primary: Money, geography, and the media. One candidate has two of them, which will eventually lead to his nomination. Read on to find out how...
Save the Suspense: Democratic Primary Results Determined (Part 2 of 3)
First, refresh yourself on the Democratic Primary Schedule. Second, sit back and enjoy the show. Here is a step by step process of how the next Democratic nominee for President will be John Edwards.
A) Iowa (1/14/08) - With former Iowa Governor Vilsack dropping out, it will be a three candidate race in Iowa between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Here is a look at eight polls taken in the last three months by a handful of different sources. Two of those candidates rise and fall with the moods of Iowans. Only one person is in the top two of everyone of those polls, and leads five of the eight, and that's John Edwards.
Edwards, unlike Clinton, Obama, and Richardson, has had a network in Iowa since 2004, when he came in second to John Kerry in the Democratic Iowa caucus. Edwards' folksy charm and uncanny ability to reach out to a small crowd surpasses the strength and preference of Obama to speak to big crowds. Iowans like the Edwards approach much more, as they are the first to vote for the candidates and want to speak with them in close, intimate settings. Ultimately, however, Edwards doesn't even have to win Iowa, though he currently has a good as shot as any of the Big Three. If Clinton or Obama dump a load of money into the state, they could pass him. It's the next couple weeks where Edwards will pull away.
B) Nevada (1/19/08) - And here's where geography will play its biggest role. For the first time, Nevada has been moved up in front of New Hampshire. On this Saturday, John Edwards wins Nevada. Slap a guarantee on this one. The one who carries the labor unions carries Nevada, and labor loves John Edwards. Edwards takes his top 3 Iowa showing and Nevada victory into the Sunday morning political shows as well as the Sunday morning papers. The media takes a hold of the Edwards campaign, and whispers of either Obama or Hillary (the one that didn't win Iowa) becoming desperate begin to hit the news cycles. Edwards, meanwhile, looks confident on all news segments, with a growing fandom. Subsequent voters look forward to voting for a winner. The money starts rolling in to the Edwards campaign, while Clinton and Obama are hemorrhaging it to try to keep pace.
C) New Hampshire (1/22/08) - Hillary Clinton will win New Hampshire. The Clintons are incredibly popular in the state. Edwards rides his Nevada victory into a strong second place showing, despite never being in the top two until that Nevada primary (ah, the power of horserace coverage). At this point, Obama is throwing the bank at the early primaries while Edwards is already campaigning for "Super Tuesday." At this point, Edwards might have two victories and a second place showing.
D) South Carolina (1/29/08) - Make that three victories. When the primaries head south, John Edwards will strengthen his lead. Worst case after South Carolina, he has two victories (Nevada and South Carolina) and two strong showings (Iowa, New Hampshire). In other words, this is your leader heading into "Super Tuesday."
I've got a word limit. Trust me, there's more. I'll conclude the Primary results in seven days. Next week's topic:
1 comment:
I like your thinking on this one. While I do have some reservations about the Dems "running a loser," I think I could overcome them where Edwards is concerned. He could easily sneak through to the lead here. It should make things much more interesting, to say the least.
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